When is the Next Fed Interest Rate Decision? Data Insights

If you’ve ever seen Bitcoin or Ethereum jump or crash overnight, you know the U.S. Federal Reserve can move markets like almost nothing else. Right now, the whole crypto world is glued to one date: December 10, 2025. That’s when the next Fed interest rate decision will be announced after the two-day FOMC meeting on December 9 and 10.

For many new investors, this feels confusing and stressful, but here’s everything you need to know about this event.

How Do Fed Interest Rates Actually Work?

The Fed controls federal funds rate, the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans. This standard affects mortgage rates, car loans, credit card interest rates, and cost of borrowing by businesses across the country. Low rates lead to lower costs of borrowing, business growth, consumer spending, and investors feel at ease to hold such assets as stocks and cryptocurrencies. The reverse occurs when the rates increase: money becomes costly, consumption is reduced, and investors tend to shift to the time-tested alternatives.

After raising rates aggressively in 2022 and 2023 to fight inflation, the Fed started cutting again in 2024 and 2025. The present target range is between 3.75% and 4.00%.

2025 Federal Reserve Meeting Calendar. Source: federalreserve.gov

What to Expect from the Next Fed Interest Rate Decision

Just a few weeks ago, markets were nearly certain that the Fed would lower rates by another quarter point in December. As of today, the popular CME FedWatch Tool indicates around 50% of the probability of a cut with actual likelihood that the central bank may not cut the rates.

This uncertainty has been caused by a number of developments. Certain Fed officials are worried that inflation does not yet hit the 2% goal and especially that new tariffs and supply-chain shocks might cause prices to rise. Meanwhile, some people perceive evident indicators of frailty in the labor market and desire to reduce the rates to avoid further slowdown. Recent American government shutdown has postponed official employment statistics compelling policymakers to resort to private-sector data which at times sparks contradictory signals.

Why Crypto Reacts So Strongly to Next Fed Interest Rate Decision

Cryptocurrencies are one of the assets with the most interest rate sensitivity. When safe savings accounts or Treasury bills pay 4% or 5%, many investors prefer that guaranteed return over the volatility of Bitcoin and altcoins. When the Fed lowers rates and those safe yields fall to 1% or 2%, the opportunity cost of holding crypto drops sharply, and fresh capital usually flows back into the market.

Here are the key historical data examples of how Fed policy has moved Bitcoin prices:

• 2020–2021, near-zero rates + massive stimulus
  Bitcoin has skyrocketed between ~$10,000 and an all-time peak of ~$69,000.
• 2022, rapid rate hikes to fight inflation
  Bitcoin plunged and dropped to below $17,000 (a cycle low of approximately $15,500).
• Late 2024, first rate cuts + introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
  Bitcoin strengthened and surpassed the mark of 100,000.
• Oct-Nov 2025, cut rate and wary Powell remarks.
  After the October cut, Bitcoin first fell to $104,000, then proceeded to fall further and hit under $90,000 in November as uncertainty remained.

The next Fed interest rate decision will determine the future of cryptocurrency, as it goes into 2026.
A rate cut may help jumpstart the market to drive Bitcoin over $100,000 again. A pause would probably leave pressure short-term on prices, but wouldn’t alter the longer-term optimistic picture of a lower-rate environment next year.

What Should Crypto Investors Watch Right Now

With the next Fed interest rate decision approaching, here are the most important signals to track:

Macro/Fed Indicators

• December 6 Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls). Strong data reduces cut odds; weak data boosts them.
• Weekly Jobless Claims. Rising above 250k is bullish for rate-cut hopes.
• Inflation Data
• CME FedWatch Tool

Crypto-Specific Metrics

• Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows
• Stablecoin Supply & Exchange Inflows. Growing supply and inflows to exchanges usually precede rallies.
• On-Chain Volume & Active Addresses. Rising transaction volume and new whale wallets signal accumulation.
• Exchange Bitcoin Reserves. At multi-year lows means lower sell pressure.

Watch for confluence: soft jobs data + rising ETF/stablecoin inflows = highest probability of a pre-Christmas Bitcoin rally.

What you can do while waiting for the Next Fed Interest Rate Decision

The first thing is to stay informed, avoid emotional trading, and consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) through volatility. Also read how Gold vs Bitcoin can help regulate your assets as an inflation hedge in our blog.

Instead of waiting for the next Fed rate decision, you can start earning from your crypto right away with CoinRabbit’s crypto loans. Rather than selling the assets when you need cash, you can borrow against crypto and keep your long-term investment intact. If you believe your crypto will grow in value and just need quick liquidity, this option can be much smarter than selling.

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• You need money for expenses but don’t want to reduce your crypto holdings.
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• You want to optimize your crypto tax expenses with smart moves.

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Last Updated on November 20, 2025 by Dan Marsh